RealClimate is good solid science-advocacy

I just got back to a far-out trip to realclimate, where fantasies can become a part of your life. The latest article is about sea level rise estimates out to the year 2100 and how these are actually conservative estimates and still nobody gets credit for doing good science.

Science has many examples of trying to make predictions that are tested far, far into the future. For example, Einstein's theory culminated in the atom bomb decades later. And another of his theories was much later confirmed in "frame dragging" of orbiting bodies in astronomy. And that's just one scientist. Others who have had their theories come true decades later include, er..., well there must be lots of them. It's the failures you don't hear about, the theories that were later disproved.

Today, climate scientists are advancing their theories and projections that may be proven decades up to a century hence (they could predict farther out, their models are flawless and limitless, but there's no darn market for it). While making predictions, they are also advocating doing something about it now, not waiting decades for action (Einstein was a fool!). Which if you think about it, is a very good idea! Because they could be wrong and who would pay anything then? And it doesn't look so good with every temperature database in question, and every computer model wobbly even with a good temperature database.

There has been an imperceptible shift from "we've got to act now to save the environment before it's too late!" to a new urgency, "We've got to act now before too many people discover the science is shoddy!"

But you've got to feel pity, because climate science is a lousy business to be in. People can't do anything good with their results, like come up with some new labor-saving device, or even a toy or military weapon. They can only be taxed to high heaven, just to "keep things from getting much worse". And they can't even be sure if they got it right in their lifetime, only to become another forgotten theory. Except if they're not sure, they don't get the job. Now they are sure!